Design Earthquake in Asalouyeh Special Economic Zone

Asalouyeh special economic zone, a collection of different plants, was established for the utilization of different oil and gas resources. The main objective of this paper is to present a probabilistic procedure to construct time-series, in Asalouyeh over hard rock site. Probabilistic seismic hazard procedure is compatible with the source-path and site reflecting the influence of different magnitude events at different distances that may occur during a specified time period. The peak ground acceleration is estimated to be 0.27g to 0.34g, for a return period of 475 and 2475 years, respectively. The disaggregation of the seismic hazard is carried out to identify hazard-dominating events. The relative contributions of the various sources to the total seismic hazard are determined as a function of their occurrence rates and their ground-motion potential. Finally, the stochastic finite-fault technique based on region specific seismic parameters is used to generate time series of earthquake scenario. This technique which models source, path and site as a simple function is based on the simulation of several small earthquakes as subevents that comprise a large fault-rupture event. The disaggregation results show the probable events would be at distances up to 5 km, with magnitudes 5.85 and 6.75, for ground motion corresponds to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. This indicates the use of stochastic models would be particularly important in generating synthetic ground motions for large events at close distances in Asalouyeh zone where such a recorded ground motions are rare.