Analysis the Spatial Changes of Urban Environment in the Mashhad Metropolis Using the Natural Step Future Study Approach

Since the main theme of any geographical analysis is the emphasis on space and its environmental concepts, any change in the relationship between humans and the urban environment can be considered as the final production of human desire to change their settlement areas to overcome the environmental and spatial nature of the city. Accordingly, the present study attempts to analyze the spatial transformations in the urban environment scale by utilizing the natural step foresight approach in the context of urban environment indicators. Therefore, descriptive- analytical studies, documentary and questionnaire in the frame of Delphi model and software analyses were applied. After holding the initial discussion sessions with 50 academic elites and executive’s managers of Mashhad city, as statistical research society, 78 variables were identified in the frame of 16 general classifications. In continuous, the primary variables were defined in the Mic Mac and Scenario wizard future study software’s in the context of cross-impact matrix. Then, the statistical society were asked to assess the variables in term of the direct, indirect and potential influence- dependence rates in the range of 0 (null) to 3 (strong influence). The results showed that the obtained fill rate is equal to 95.79% with two data iterations representing the high level of variables influencing each other. Based on the findings, integrated urban environmental management index (ME4) with 188 scores has the most direct impact on other variables, while development and the promotion of urban recycling regulations index with calculated linear value of 5,585,944 had the most indirect impact on other key variables. Finally, considering the identified key driving forces, the favorable, middle and tragedy scenarios were presented.