Modeling and Analysis of the Impact of Cancer Costs on Economic Growth in Iran

The epidemiological burden of chronic diseases and their risk factors is increasing worldwide, especially in developing countries.When it comes to the impact of diseases on economic, direct cost include all costs related to the diagnosis and treatment of diseases and indirect costs include loss of productivity and efficiency of the patient, should be taken into consideration. The main purpose of this paper is to explore and demonstrate the cost effect of chronic non-communicable disease, cancer, at the national level.
In this study, we calculate the cost of 22 types of cancer for 18 age group with 5 years interval, for both males and females. Then, the equation that shows the negative impact costs related to cancer treatment on national income, is estimated due to ordinary least squares method. In the next stage, trend of growth for cost of cancers and GDP is computed by ARIMA model during 2004 to 2036.
The results show that the cost of cancer treatment examined in this study, will experience a growing trend over the next 20 years.The general trend for Iran, shows that during 2004 to 2036, 2/7 percentage of GDP is lost by cost of different types of cancer.
Catching non-communicable diseases, increasing the share of cancer costs in patient’s budget and reducing in his purchasing power prevent his participation in profitable economic activities. Income and GDP of a Country decrease and consequently slow economic growth.