Predicting Drought using Statistical Methods and Large-Scale Climate Signals

It is predicted that the water scarcity will rise in the coming years due to a population growth, increased pollution sources, climate change and occurrence of droughts can ultimately affect the amount of available water resources. A global cooperation and foresight and joint planning of water resources is necessary to resolve the water crisis. In recent years, development and designing new multidimensional and comprehensive indices seems to be the most important issue for assessment of the current condition and predicting the future trend of surface and ground water resources changes. Towards this attempt, the Water Poverty Index (WPI) is recommended as a multi-dimensional indicator to assess the availability of surface water resources. Some applications of the WPI is highlighted at different countries and also its calculation steps is demonstrated through different criteria. According to the results, the WPI is derived based on the weighted combination of five components in different studies. Main WPI components are: resources (availability, seasonal and inter-annual variability and water quality), access (accessibility of water for effective use), capacity (managing water resources based on socio-economic variables), use (level of water use by different sectors), and environment (environmental impact of water management on ecological integrity). According to multidimensional nature of Water Poverty Index along with considering all affecting factors on water scarcity and availability behind social and economic characteristics can be a useful tool in prioritizing critical areas can be considered as an effective step in optimal planning of water resources. Water Poverty Index is a combination of influencing factors on water stress and scarcity, which provide a basis to prioritize and specifying management options for different watersheds. It should be noted that determination and analysis of water scarcity in different areas is depend on the condition of water resources, data availability and the employed sub-criteria in the calculation of water poverty index.