Estimation of Residential Electricity Demand among the Selected Counties in Tehran Province using Dynamic Panel Data Model

Energy carriers including elasticity play central roles in development of societies. In this paper, we estimate residential electricity demand among the selected counties of Tehran province, i.e., Tehran, Varamin, Firouzkooh, Damavand, using dynamic panel data model over the period 2000- 2014. The most effective variables which explain demand for residential electricity are per capita income, natural gas real price, weather coldness and hotness index and electricity real price. The estimation results of the short run model reveal that demand for electricity decreases by 0.42 percent for one percent increase in electricity real price. The price of substitute energy carrier such as natural gas is of low effect on electricity demand. There is a positive and significant relationship between electricity demand and household's income. The last period electricity demand is the key effective factor in explaining the current electricity demand with a coefficient of 0.65. The estimation results of the long run model show that one percent change in electricity price changes the demand for electricity by -1.2 percent. In addition, demand for electricity increases by 0.1 percent with one percent increase in income.