Foresight of rural communities livelihoods dependence on forest services and products in Northern Zagros

Interaction between ecological and social functions of Zagros forest and traditional management reveals the importance of preemptive measures in spite of rapid socio-economic changes and consequences. Due to possible consequences (e.g. abandonment of forests and land-use change) of disruption of the interaction between people and forest, it is crucial to plan possible futures among socio-economic evolution. The main objective of this study was to structure forest management scenarios against future changes and to explain the state of traditional management in this context. The study was carried out in Armardeh forest, Baneh city, western Iran using foresight framework. In order to meet the objective a chronicle review of socio-economic situation is necessary. This study helps to distinguish the trajectory of social changes and their driving forces in relation to forest ecosystems. Thus trend of socio-economic changes was studied from 2003 to 2012 using literature review, face to face interviews and questionnaire. Weighted ranks of criteria and indicator which are effective on local livelihoods dependency on forest products were computed by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) by participating 18 experts. Foresights were carried out with principles of Delphi method by collecting data from expert’s brainstorm and scoring. Results indicated socio-economic changes in the studied period including migration to the city, severe livestock reduction, constant trend of life expenses, reducing fuel costs, inconsiderable fluctuations of revenues, lack of social welfare and insignificant improvement of quality of life. Referring to expert’s assessment, socio-economic situation, service availability and communication are main criteria affecting the local livelihood system, respectively. Regarding to livelihood dependency on the forest resources, the Delphi analysis resulted in three management scenarios for 2023-time horizon in accordance with the vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran including (1) Business as usual, (2) Improvement of forests (favorable scenario) regarding to possibility, the scenarios were elaborated into feasible and impossible scenarios, and (3) Forest degradation (unfavorable scenario). Finally, Expert’s consensus indicated that forest degradation scenario, improvement (feasible), business as usual and improvement (impossible) have the most probabilities to happen, respectively.