Evaluating the Ecological Capacity for Urban Development Using a Combination of AHP and GIS (Case Study: Baghmalek District)

Today, urban planners have become interested to consider sustainable development in their planning. Evaluation of ecological capacity for urban development in order to select appropriate locations is the main factor in sustainable development. In this study, it has been attempted to evaluate the ecological capacity in order to determine the best possible regions for urban development in Baghmalek district by applying a combination of Analytical Hierarchy Processes and geographic information system.
In order to achieve this objective, first we recognized the effective criteria in urban development using the previous studies and by collecting opinions of the experts by Delphi methodology. Finally 5 criteria and 12 sub-criteria were selected. Then, we determined the priority of the criteria against each other by pairwise comparison method and by applying Analytical Hierarchy Processes. Finally, the required information layers were valuated based on fuzzy logic in environment of Geographical Information System (Arc GIS 10.2), the calculated weights were applied on them and ecological capacity map was prepared by weighted overlaying the layers.
The results indicated that %46.65 of the studied area has a completely unsuitable potential, %39.62 has an unsuitable potential, %12.27 has an average potential, %1.17 has a suitable potential and %0.29 has completely a suitable potential for urban development.
According to the classification of the final map, it was concluded that the prone areas for future physical development in Baghmalek district can be further expanded in the northern part. On the other hand, Southeast and East directions because of having mountainous regions, face with more restrictions for future development.