Weight induced-stress of the Gotvand-e Olya reservoir on the Golestan Fault

Impoundment of a reservoir and changes in the lake levels can trigger / induce the seismicity. In this research, the strength changes are modeled across the Golestan fault, due to loading effect of Gotvand-e Olya reservoir which is located in the Zagros Mountain of SW Iran. The formulas based on 3D Boussinesq solutions were used to calculate normal and shear stresses on a given fault plane. Geometry and mechanism of the Golestan fault were precisely determined using local earthquakes recorded by a local seismological network. For a better analysis, we did the calculations in three different dips of 55, 60 and 65 degrees for the Golestan fault. Since the lake is located on the hanging wall of the Golestan fault, it is expected that loading effect of the reservoir causes delay on occurrence of earthquakes and make the fault more stable. Analysis of induced stresses confirms this too, the results in all dips in most parts of the fault from 7 km to 20 km depth, which are in closer distance to the reservoir, indicate on stabilization. Only in a small part of the fault, located at shallow depths between 5 and 7 km, the destabilizing effect is observed. The calculated strengths, which leads to destabilizing the Golestan fault ranges between -0.243 bars and 0. The observed seismicity in vicinity of the Golestan fault for before and after the impoundment confirms the the results of stress modelling in different parts of the fault.