Predicting the spatial land use changes and development of residential areas using CA_MARKOV‎ and GEOMOD‎ methods. Case study: Ghara-su basin, Golestan Province

Land use management, planning, studying and assessing the changes for receiving sustainable development are essential. The study area was part of the Ghara-su basin in the west of Golestan Province. This area, is located in the vast and fertile plains and its modest distance to the Caspian Sea, provides a privileged geographical position. This paper attempts to model the spread of residential areas from 1988 to 2010 with using of GEOMOD. It is also predicted land use change, though done using CA_MARKOV. Series of images captured by the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) in 1988 and 2010 were used to prepare the land cover map. The classification of satellite images was done through supervised classification and maximum likelihood. The accuracy of image classification was obtained through calculation of kappa coefficients for TM 1988 and 2010 at 0.90 and 0.88, respectively.
The results of modeling show a decrease in forest and agricultural area. Results indicated that the urban and residential areas have been extended (3312.99 ha). The urban growth in the region has mainly taken place around Gorgan, which can be associated with the pattern ýdetermined by the traffic-industry status. Identification of contributing factors to urban development through modeling, therefore, can play a key role in sustainable planning and appropriate management of resources in the future