The Determinants of Gap between Ideal and Actual Fertility in Tabriz City, Iran

Fertility below replacement level despite the two-child norm in the society testifies to the gap between the ideal number and the real number of children. This article examines the gap between the ideals and actual fertility. The data for this study are drawn from a survey in Tabriz city in 2017, the sample consists of 550 married women aged 15-49.  The result show, most women do not meet their ideal, 60 percent had fewer children than desired (underachieved), 10% of women had more children than desired (overachieved). It was found that age at marriage is very strong predictors of over- and underachieving fertility. Women who married late were much more likely to have fewer births than desired. Increasing pressure of the social network also significantly increase the likelihood of overachieving. The impact of high perceived control of behavior factor was in line with expectations and reduced the likelihood of overachieving. These variables could explain about 36 to 43 percent of the fertility gap variation. In general, given that most women in this study have not yet completed their fertility, if they have the right conditions for childbearing, the realization of fertility goals and reduction of fertility gap is expected.