Simulation of Land Use Change Dynamics Based on the CA-Markov Model (Case Study: Malekan County, Iran)

The land surface has experienced significant land use and land cover changes especially with regard to the human built environment. Land use changes is an important component in understanding the interactions between human activities and the environment, so analyzing these changes from the past to the future on the basis of a dynamic approach is necessary. In this research, land use maps for Malekan County in East Azerbaijan (Iran) for the years 1987, 2000 and 2014 were extracted, respectively, using Landsat TM, ETM+ and OLI using RS and GIS techniques. Land use changes detected over the past 27 years were analyzed. The CAMarkov model was used to predict the land use pattern for 2024. Results show that agricultural land and human built areas increased but bare land decreased during the period 1987-2014. The simulated land use map for 2024 indicates an incremental trend in agricultural land (from 24.53% to 25.67%) and also in human built areas (from 2.69% to 3.75%) during 2014-2028. These results can play useful role to improve land use management strategies in the study area.