Aging and Economic Growth
ObjectivesDemographic changes is one of the important issues affecting economic growth. The demographic structure can affect investment, savings, consumption, and ultimately economic growth. The present study aims to analyze the effect of the age structure of the population (by emphasis on aging) on the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in Iran.
Methods & MaterialsThis study has been investigated by library research method, using Iranian economic data published by Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran and Statistical Center of Iran and United Nation in 2018. In this research, the autoregressive distributed lag model method was used to investigate the effect of the population age structure on the economic growth of Iran in the period between 1987 and 2017.
ResultsThe results indicate that the effect of the growth of 0-14 year’s old population is insignificant on the economic growth in the short term. The effect of the growth rate of population aged 14-64 years is positive and significant on economic growth, in both the short and long term. Also, the effect of the growth rate of the population older than 64 years on economic growth is negative and significant in the long term (r=-1.37). All variables are stationary and only two variables, including the growth rate of the people over 64 to the total population and the growth rate of the 0 to 14 year’s people to the total population are at the stationary level, and their first-order difference will be stationary.
ConclusionAn increase in the share of older than 64 years old people can slow down the economic growth in the country in the long term. In other words, increase in the proportion of this consumer group, reduces the marginal propensity to saving, thus makes the formation of capital troubled, and reduces capital per capita, so it will have a negative effect on economic growth.
Iranian Journal of Ageing, Volume:13 Issue:52, 2019
626 - 637
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