The Perspective of the Demographic Structure of the Country on the Horizon (1430) and its Impact on Security Spheres

The purpose of this study was to investigate the demographic structure of the country on the horizon (1430) and its impact on security defenses, and to study the influential population trends in the horizon. The type and method of this developmental-applied research and its approach is combination (quantitative and qualitative). In the qualitative section of the expert panels for analyzing demographic trends and in the small part, a researcher-made questionnaire was used. The statistical population of this study is composed of experts from armed forces organizations and demographic centers. The sample size selected in the qualitative section of the number of (20) experts and in the quantitative section was deliberately targeted by the number of (100) available experts. Descriptive and inferential statistics have been used for data analysis. Descending trends of population growth and fertility, heterogeneity, increasing aging, increasing immigration, urbanization, increasing the age of marriage and increasing divorce have led to fundamental changes in the structure of the Iranian population, and the continuation of these trends to the horizon (1430) has an impact on defense areas Security will be. In a general ranking, by integrating all components of the six areas (economic, social / cultural, political, military, environmental, and science and technology), the components of the task force, increasing the costs of law enforcement and social security, threats to territorial integrity, threats to security of interests National, economic resources, and the provision of payloads have the most impact on the demographic trends of the country. In sum, the three aging processes, heterogeneity, and the divergence of ethno-religious identities to the horizon (1430) affect security domains