Is There a Trade-Off Between Inflation and Unemployment? A Comparative Cross-Country Analysis Using Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) Model

The inflation-unemployment trade-off investigation has a long history which began with Fisher (1926) and Phillips (1958). This paper examines the trade-off between inflation and output gap for the period 1988Q4-2013Q1 using a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model and considering the aggregate supply side shocks. Model includes 34 major economies with an accumulative share of more than 80 percent of world GDP. The results are as follows: 1) in most countries, the inflation-output gap trade-off is confirmed in the long-run. 2) The positive relationship between inflation and the output gap is approved in the short-run. A positive shock, however, in the output gap leads to lower inflation in some countries such as Iran which is explainable by upward sloping Philips curve of Friedman (1968b).