Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of mangrove forests in Iran using the maximum entropy model

Spatial modelling of distribution in the plant communities apply for predicting potential habitat areas and protecting species and determining the factors affecting their distribution. The study purpose is to determine the potential distribution of mangroves in Iran under climate change. In this study, occurrence records for Avicenia marina as dominant species were collected and MaxEnt modeling was used to predict the distribution of mangrove forests. The result showed the most suitable areas for the mangrove distribution under current climatic conditions are the Oman Sea coasts and the eastern coast of the Persian Gulf from Gwadar Bay to the northern coasts of Qeshm Island and Nayband Bay in the southern part of Bushehr Province. In the year 2050, habitat suitability based on the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, on the eastern coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea, will increase. Both current and future climatic conditions, the northern coasts of Bushehr Province and the coasts of Khuzestan Province were not defined as suitable habitats. The results can apply for the conservation plan and mangrove planting.