Forecasting future climate variables using HadCM3 model and climate scenarios, case study: selected synoptic stations of Hableh Roud Basin
Message:
Abstract:
The effects of a change in the temperature and particularly precipitation around the world are not well known due to their complexity and spatial variations. In this research, the impacts of climate change on some climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) has been studied  in Hableh Roud Basin due to ecological sensitivity and special situation of this area and HadCM3 model data were analyzed using LARS-WG model according to A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. The seasonal variations of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature of the synoptic stations of Firouzkooh and Garmsar were investigated in two periods of 2030-2011 and 2046-2065. Results showed that precipitation between 0.23 to 0.48 mm will increase in the near future and will decrease between 0.08 to 0.15 mm in the middle future. The minimum temperature will increase between 0.5 to 0.67° C in near future and between 1.54 to 1.97° C for the middle future. Maximum temperature will increase in near future between 0.43 to 0.6° C and between 1.47 to 1.89° C in middle future. Finally, the climatic conditions of the Hableh Roud Basin will have a significant difference compared to current conditions in upcoming periods. Therefore, regarding to this issue, as well as awareness of the direct and indirect negative effects of climate change in the various parts of the basin (agriculture, water resources, environment, natural resources, health, industry and economics), long-term planning and strategic management of new situations is essential.
Article Type:
Research/Original Article
Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Watershed Engineering and Management, Volume:11 Issue:3, 2019
Pages:
771 - 783
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