Identification of Key Factors Affecting on the Shiraz City Tourism with a Future Studies Approach

Today, tourism as an industry, as a dynamic global and social phenomenon that knowledge and scientific analysis it has the ability to do this provide a secure framework to plan the tourism industry in the present and future. The purpose of this study is an Identify Key drivers effective on tourism development in Shiraz and how to influence these propellers on each other. This research is, in terms of purpose, applied and in terms of nature and method is analytical and exploratory that based on the new methods of futuristic science and it down in two steps, determine key indicators through the Delphi method and Identify Key Drivers using the MicMac software which is done based on cross-impact analysis method. The sample is in the first stage there were 40 experts in the field of tourism in Shiraz and has been selected in the second phase, 15 people were targeted. The results show that in total influencing 8 key factors in the tourism situation in Shiraz. These are the variables the most influential and least influential on the future of tourism development in Shiraz and includes propulsion water resources, advertising, local management, monuments, food security, security, national macro policy in the field of tourism and citizen participation. Among these factors, management is detected as the most important factor affecting other key factors.