Estimation of future temperature and precipitation fluctuations in Ardebil plain in order to manage and planning the beginning of cultivation and the length of wheat growth period

In this study, the effect of climate change on time of wheat cultivation, duration of growth period was investigated in Ardabil region. For adaptation to the phenomenon of climate change, and was developed appropriate crop calendar for wheat cultivation in Ardebil. To achieve this approach, first the occurrence of climate change was analyzed by using statistical downscalling, and the output data of the CanESM2 model using SDSM software under the RCP 4.5 scenario, next the climate parameters of the maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were simulated for the future period (2040-2011). Then the time of wheat cultivation was determined according to two temperature and precipitation factors for the base and future periods. The results of calculation of length of growth were obtained using GDD index. Finally, an appropriate agronomic calendar for the future years was determined based on this indicator. The results showed that the temperature is increasing and the average annual temperature in Ardebil will increase from 9.2 to 10.2 ° C and precipitation will be reduced to 15 millimeters. Under the conditions of the future climate, length of Growth period will reduce 20 days relative to the basic period. The time of wheat cultivation will be postponed for 15 days and the suitable time of wheat cultivation will be in the second half of October.