The Investigation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production Risk; the Case of Wheat in Fars Province

This study intents to investigate the raised question “how does climate change affects wheat yield?” Rain-fed wheat farming as a sensitive crop to climatic aspects was investigated regarding the study purpose. Utilizing the random function of the Just and Pope (1978, 1979), and feasible generalize list square approach, the role of climatic and non-climatic factors were evaluated in the mean and variance of yield in six regions including Abadeh, Eqlid, Marvdasht, Shiraz, Larestan and Lamerd (1374_1395). The results demonstrated that the precipitation as one of the most important factors, climate change phenomenon has positive significance on rain-fed wheat yield, thus the precipitation can predict 1.61 percent of variation of rain-fed wheat yield. Moreover, the precipitation and temperature as a reducing risk inputs are effective factors to rain-fed wheat yield of Fars province. Findings illustrated that climate change provides the condition for temperature to be able to compensate loss due to reduced precipitation. According to study findings, some suggestions were presented to policy makers in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies for rain-fed wheat farmers in response to climate change like using heat resistant seed and mechanizing cultivation of rain-fed wheat.