Evaluating the Impacts of Balance of Payments Variables Shock on Selected Macroeconomic Variables Using FAVAR

Message:
Abstract:

International balance of payments is one of the most common criteria for measuring the flow of trade and capital transfers in an open economy. The three main components of this balance are: trade balance, current account (or difference between export and import of goods and services) and capital account. In this study, factor augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) was used to evaluate the effects of balance of payments shocks on macroeconomic variables in the Iran economy in periode 1989-2017. The factors used in this study included economic growth, oil revenues, money growth, inflation, exchange rates and interest rates. The results show that the shock from the current account and capital account led to an increase in production, consumption and investment. The reaction of nominal sector variables such as inflation and interest rate to positive shock was also positive. Comparison of the results of this study shows that incorporation of hidden variables and factors into the model resulted in faster response of macroeconomic variables to the shocks entered by the balance of payments components.

Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Economic Modeling Research, Volume:10 Issue: 37, 2019
Pages:
69 to 103
https://www.magiran.com/p2068485  
سامانه نویسندگان
  • Lotfalipour، Mohammad Reza
    Corresponding Author (2)
    Lotfalipour, Mohammad Reza
    Full Professor Economics, Ferdowsi University, مشهد, Iran
  • Ebrahimi Salari، Taghi
    Author (4)
    Ebrahimi Salari, Taghi
    Associate Professor Economic-Economics -Faculity of Economics &Adminstrative Scirnces, Ferdowsi University, مشهد, Iran
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