Investigating of the long-term and short-term effects of rainfall changes on the value added of Iranian aquaculture and fisheries sector

Human economic activities have caused many environmental impacts that can be attributed to climate change as the most important side effects. One of the components of climate change is the change in rainfall pattern, time and space distribution of rainfall, and also the reduction of rainfall. Considering the importance of water inputs in economic activities, especially agriculture and fisheries, in the present study, the effect of rainfall change on the value added of the fisheries sector in the short and long term has been studied. For this purpose, the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) has been used. The results of this study indicate that rainfall in the short and long run has a positive and significant effect on the added value of the fisheries sector. Rainfall by improving access to surface water and groundwater resources has indirect effects on improving the value added of the fisheries sector. According to the results, it is suggested that fish catch limits be applied in critical areas affected by climate change. Also, in order to adjust and adapt the country's aquaculture sector to shocks caused by rainfall and climate change, the field of technology and production improvement should be provided through providing banking and financing facilities.