Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability Spectrum with the Human Casualty Approach (Case Study: Third District of Shiraz Metropolitan)

Natural hazards, because of their severity and impact on communities in a short period of time, have become one of the main concerns of planners and city managers in recent years. Among others, earthquake is the most probable and destructive hazard in our country. The city of Shiraz is located in a zone with a high risk of earthquake in Iran. This is a serious threat to the sustainability of the city's development. The third municipal district of Shiraz is one of its most important districts, which is threatened by two major faults (Soltan II and Saadi). Due to the importance of urban earthquake vulnerability assessment issues in urban planning, an attempt has been made in this study to estimate the casualties of the third municipal district of Shiraz in two possible scenarios. To this end, RADIUS method with indicators such as soil conditions, distance from faults, population density, and structural characteristics of the buildings were used. Quantitative and qualitative methods were used to analyze the data. The findings showed that an earthquake with 6.2 Richter magnitude at 12 o’clock leaves about 713 people dead and at least 9876 people will be injured as a result. Due to a similar earthquake in this district at three o’clock in the morning, about 648 people will die and at least 7342 people will be injured. This study showed that this district is highly vulnerable against earthquakes because of physical characteristics, the existence of worn-out buildings, proximity to active faults, and inappropriate quality structures. Therefore, the results of this assessment can be used to figure out the urban programs needed to reduce injuries and fatalities.