Future Studies of Housing Resilience in 8th Zone of Isfahan Using a Combination of Scenario Analysis and cross-effects analysis

By the increasing urban population, the readiness of urban management in dealing with natural disasters and increasing resilience in the housing as one of the most important areas of resilience in the future is very important. This research seeks to identify the most influential indicators and the most likely scenarios in the area of housing resilience in the future of cities. The research method is a descriptive-analytical purpose, and a method for collecting information, reviewing library documents and reviewing the texts. In this way, effective indicators have been identified in the field of housing resonance forecasting. In the first step, the MicMac software has been analyzed using the Delphi technique (completing questionnaire by 40 experts in the field of resilience and perspectives). The results indicate that the indexes of "price of land", "ownership", "height" and "spectrum prices" will have the greatest impact in the future of housing resilience in the 8th district of Isfahan. These factors have been introduced into the scenario as the main factors in the ScenarioWizard software and the changes in each of these four effective indicators in the field of housing on each other have been evaluated. Using the Cross Impact Analysis matrix, seven possible scenarios in this area has been identified. Thus, in the most probable scenario for the future, the index of "prices" and "private ownership" as well as the "height of buildings" will increase and the "squares" will remain unchanged, which, apart from the "building height", has a relative utility in increasing resilience.