Regional Balanced Development Future Studies Based on Scenario Planning (Case Study: Ardabil Province)

Scenario planning is used when the implementers intend to formulate public policies in a consistent manner. This method allows decision makers to consider a range of believable futures, because in order to achieve a balanced and comprehensive development at the regional level, information is needed from past experience and knowledge about the future. Therefore, this research was conducted with the aim of a balanced, gap-based development study based on baseline scenario planning. The present research is applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of its nature, due to the prospective analytical-exploratory futures approach. The prevailing approach to this research is quantitative-qualitative. The required information was collected using documentary and field methods. The factors influencing regional development through a questionnaire were collected from 30 experts, experts and elites of Ardebil province through purposeful sampling and then its matrix was formed and for analyzing the indices and criteria, Mick McAnalyst software and Wizard scenario were used. The results of the analysis show that among the 51 key factors, 13 factors in the regional development of Ardabil province are effective. By providing a portfolio of scenarios for these factors, 41 possible scenarios were identified for them. In total, two strong scenarios, 1841 poor scenarios, and 20 credible scenarios were obtained.