Impacts of Coronavirus Covid-19 Pandemic on National Production Growth in 1399 SH

Understanding the Impacts of Covid-19 pandemic on the economy of Iran, especially on GNP and growth, is crucial to providing solutions. In this paper, analytical method is used to identify the problem by scenario writing.
So, GNP and economic growth in 1399 SH, considering the impacts of Covid-19, other things being equal, were estimated in four different scenarios. The results show that production in the best case scenario, will have a growth rate of -4.17%. In the worst case scenario, growth can be reduced to -17.5%. In the two intermediate scenarios, growth rates are estimated -5.7% and -15.28% for economy of Iran. Based on the presented scenarios, two factors of government policy-making and public health are pivotal. So it is sugested that: the government should be technically considerate and careful in policy-making process, especially in compensating for the damage caused to economic structures and it should try to increase social capital in order to increase the degree of public conformity aligned with health and hygiene instructions and also performance of the economy in the country.