Provide a Model for Evaluating and Analyzing Different Policies on the Demand for the Use of Public Transport with a Dynamic System Approach

Public transport plays an essential role in the social and economic development of any country by facilitating relocation and increasing access to services. Therefore, identifying the economic, social and cultural factors influencing the demand for public transportation will greatly help planners and policymakers in this area. In this study, using public transportation data and the opinion of experts, the causal diagram of public transportation in Mashhad was designed and simulated using Vansim software. Finally, with the opinion of experts, 4 scenarios were presented, the results of each of which were examined based on the demand of the public transportation system in Mashhad. The results of the scenarios show that with the doubling of the budget by 70% and the tripling of the budget by 91%, the demand for public transport will increase. Reducing the price of the bus to 50 percent (50 percent discount) will add 10 percent to the number of passengers using the bus, while a further reduction of up to 70 percent will not lead to a further increase. Initially, by increasing fuel prices threefold in the current situation, it will increase demand by 20% in public transport, which will decrease over time to about 7%. By doubling the rate of cultural activity, the percentage increase in public transport use is about 17 percent.