The prediction of Tehran's sustainable development indicators in the horizon of 2025 by a dynamic system modelling framework

In this research, we sought to provide a dynamic model of sustainable development for Tehran and a computer simulation based on the system dynamic approach were employed for the purpose. According to the intended purpose and access to data, a pattern has been developed from two sub-sectors of the economy and society and the environmental pollution. The results of the simulation in the base model indicated that simulation values could predict the actual values of the variables indicating sustainable development in Tehran well and it can be said that if the same trend continues in Tehran, the population of Tehran will reach about 11 million till 2025. On the other hand, the results indicate that despite the calculated GDP growth rate for the city of Tehran, the total revenue of the city will reach from 624 thousand billion Rials in 2008 to 315669 thousand billion Rials and the results also indicated that the emission of Carbon dioxide will reach nearly 100 billion tons per year until 2025 in Tehran, which is very high and adopting appropriate environmental policies seems necessary. On the other hand, the results show that despite the GDP growth rate for the city of Tehran, the total revenue from the city will be from 624 trillion riyals to 315669 trillion rials in 1404 from the beginning of 2008 and the results also showed that the emission of dioxid Carbon will reach nearly 100 billion tons per year in Tehran in 1404, which is high and requires the adoption of appropriate environmental policies.