Explaining housing scenarios for vulnerable urban groups  Case Study: metropolis Tehran

A large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decision-making bodies in the housing sector. Therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for low-income groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. Developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations.

In this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for low-income housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. After reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the Tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the cross-impact analysis method.

According to the results of cross-impact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. In the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty.

Accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. The urban poverty status of the Tehran metropolis. 2. The population growth rate of the Tehran metropolis. 2. Attitudes of the land. Forms the land management style. Based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from Tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. Also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in Tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. Thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios.