Monitoring and predicting the trend of changing rangelands using Satelite images and CA-Markov model (Case study: Noor-rood basin, Mazandaran proince)

Predicting the trend of land use/land cover chenges in natural range ecosystem via remote sensing techniques and evaluating their potentials by modeling, plays an important role in decision making. The goal of this research is monitoring and predicting land use/land cover changes in Nour-rood basin by CA-Markov in a 60 year periods (1988-2048). Landsat TM (1988, 1998, 2008) and OLI (2018) imagery of similar months (in July) were classified by maximum likelihood method algorithm. Terrestrial reality derived from topographic at scale 1:25000 and aerial photos available in the (GDNR) and (WMM) during 1988-2008 and field visits (2018) were evaluated for accuracy. The accuracy of the production maps calculated with Kappa coefficient. So that the highest and lowest ratio were related to the images of 1998 and 1988, respectively with the values of 0.86 and 0.81. The results were compared with field ground truth to determine the accuracy of results. Random matric used to convert land use classes and the map of land cover of Nour-rud basin predicted, in (2018-2028). The results showed that in (1988-2018), forests and rangelands with excellent and fair cover conditions had decreasing and ranges with good condition, rocks and residential areas had increasing trend. Total area of rangelands decreased from 116206 hectares in 1988 to 106336 hectares in 2018. Moreover, the results of Markov model with more than 85% precision showed the same trend of land use changes from 2018-2048. Excellent rangeland cover conditions, showed decreasing trend, rocky and residential areas will also have an increasing trend until 2048. Markov's prediction model also shows an accuracy of more than 85%. The trend of land use changes during 2018-2048 will be the same as in previous. In whitch case, excellent range condition will have decreasing trend; rocky and residential areas will have an increasing trend until 2048.