Analysis of the most important factors affecting the currency crisis in 2018-2019

The currency crisis or the sharp, continuous, and involuntary rise in the exchange rate is known as a threat to the economy and economic security due to its devastating effects on macroeconomic indicators, especially inflation and destabilization. In the Iranian economy, the currency crisis has occurred in several stages, the most recent and perhaps most important of which occurred in 1997, which had and continues to have far-reaching political, security and economic consequences. Examining the causes and factors and identifying the contribution of each in this event is very important and can be a beacon to continue the path of economic governance. Therefore, in the present study, an attempt was made to identify 40 factors and experts involved in the subject of the causes affecting this event and to identify the importance and weight of each factor using the focus group method. The results show that although the return of US unilateral sanctions by Trump in 1997 played a key role in changing expectations of the foreign exchange market, the most important factor in the currency shock of 1997 was the cessation of the central bank's foreign exchange intervention in the open market. And the incorrect policy of setting a rate of 4200 Tomans for the currency at the beginning of 1997 led to the encouragement and mutation of the demand for foreign exchange and the non-return and hoarding of foreign exchange by major exporters and mainly dependent on the government.