Analyzing the Causal Relationship between Economic Stability and Economic Security in Iran

Economic security is the maintenance and promotion of the way of life of the people of a society through the provision of goods and services, as well as through internal operations and presence in international markets, hence economic security is one of the most important issues of Iran's economy today. The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between economic stability and economic security in Iran during time series data of the period 1357 to 1397. In this study, using a combined index of Iran's economic security is calculated based on two indicators of production and investment. The economic stability index is also calculated based on the GARCH model. This research is correlational in terms of applied purpose and descriptive research in terms of type and method. In this study, the causal relationship between the two variables was investigated using Granger causality. According to the results of Granger causality and the significance of Granger causality statistics from economic stability to economic security, it can be said that economic stability is a determining factor of economic security. Also, considering the insignificance of the probability of Granger causality statistics from economic security on economic stability, it can be said that economic security does not have Granger causality on economic stability. Also the regression results showed that the effect of economic stability on economic security in Iran is positive and significant and this suggests that increasing economic instability will reduce economic security in the country.