The Impact of Potential Future of Iraq (Post-ISIS) on the National Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran Based on Scenario Writing

Compared to Iran's other neighbors, Iraq has had the greatest impact on Iran's security and national interests. Especially after the withdrawal from the ISIS crisis, steps have been taken to strengthen the new national identity and reduce the influence of foreign powers, and as a result, regional and international actors have sought to recruit in the new Iraq. Therefore, the future developments in Iraq will play an important role in drawing the power lines in this region. During this period, domestic, regional and trans-regional actors are seeking to increase their role and influence in the equations of this country and finally to draw their desired scenario. Based on the scenario writing method, the present article intends to examine the impact of possible future scenarios in Iraq on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. n this regard, the author identifies the key factors affecting the developments in Iraq and then identifies the uncertainties in Iraq by identifying the drivers, and finally identifies six possible scenarios for the future of Iraq. hese scenarios range from low probability to high: The scenario of changing the political structure in Iraq through the change of the constitution, the coup d'etat, the civil war, the disintegration of Iraq, the unity and cohesion between the parties and the increase of Iraqi national power (non-cooperation with Iran) and finally: the scenario of fair and democratic division of power Iran).