Investigation The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Credit Risk of Iran's Banks Based on Musharaka and Installment sale Contracts (Selected Banks)

After the global financial crisis in 2008, and revealing the devastating effects of the problem of non-repayment of banking facilities to other sectors of the global economy various schools of economics and specialy Islamic economic researchers were analyzing and presenting solutions to this crisis. Therefore, it is important to discuss about the factors affecting credit risk in order to improve its management practices. The macroeconomic variables that reflect the macroeconomic conditions of the society influences the default rate of bank facilities and the results of several studies carried out both inside and outside the country support this. On the other hand, considering the differences in risk and its management practices in Islamic banking and conventional banking, studying credit risk in the form of Islamic financial instruments seems to be necessary. Several researches have also been done to identify and manage the risks associated with Islamic financial instruments, in particular profitable financial instruments, such as Musharaka ,Mudaraba, etc. According to the above, in this research, the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables on the rate of non-payment facilities granted on the basis of Musharaka and Installment sale has been investigated in Iran. This analysis uses annual data of selected banks and used GMM model According to the results of this study, it is found that the default rates of granted facilities based on these two Islamic contracts are affected by fluctuations in macroeconomic variables. It can also be said that the credit risk in contract, installment sales is more sensitive to the fluctuations of macroeconomic variables than in contracts, Musharaka. In addition, among the macroeconomic variables discussed in this study, fluctuations of exchange rate, more than other variables, affect the credit risk of these Islamic contracts.