Socio- Economic Security and Fertility Intention in Tehran City

One of the main explanations for low fertility is risk aversion and uncertainty reduction. This study examines the effect of security on fertility intention in the framework of risk aversion and rational choice theory. To this end, a sub-sample of data from the “2017 Iran Fertility Transition Survey” was used. The sample comprised of 417 ever married women aged 15-49 in Tehran city.  The results show that 53% of women intend to have more children and the average number of intended children is 2.07. Younger wives and husbands, women with a university degree, childless and single- child women, and women with no pregnancy experience in the past two years are more likely than their counterparts to intend to have more children. Fertility intention is also related with economic security and concerns about social harms. The intention rises with decreasing concerns about social harm and increasing economic security. In the multivariate analysis, these two dimensions of security have little effect on fertility intention as compared to age and the number of children. However, given the intention of childless and single-child women to have more children as well as the existing ideal fertility of more than two children in the society, effective measures in reducing economic problems and social harms would facilitate childbearing conditions and narrow the gap between ideal and actual fertility in the country.