Developing conceivable scenarios for the future of university research programs and their impact on university library services

The research aims to identify key research factors, prepare research scenarios for universities and analyze the role of these scenarios on the services of academic libraries in 2034 horizon.

The present study was conducted with a futures research approach using the GBN method. Semi-structured interviews were used to identify key factors in the research. Thematic analysis was used to identify the themes in the qualitative data of the interview. To evaluate the impact of research scenarios on the services of academic libraries, academic library manager viewpoints have been surveyed.

A total of 24 key research factors were identified based on the experts' viewpoints through the thematic analysis of the interviews. The two factors identified with the greatest importance and uncertainty for formulating research scenarios are: the status of international scientific and research cooperation, and the "government approach to research". Four scenarios for university research are presented: 1- National and international research boom will create an open research mechanism in universities; 2- Failure to pay attention to national research will provide opportunities for international research boom. 3- Support for national research; and 4- Stagnation of national and international research programs. A survey of university central library managers found that research scenarios and strategic plans had a direct impact on academic library services.

According to the authors, the present study was conducted for the first time both in Iran and abroad and has the necessary innovation and knowledge.