Study the effects of tax shock on macroeconomic variables in an oil economy with the approach of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)

Oil revenues and taxes, respectively, are the first and second sources of government revenues in Iran's economy, with changes in their volume having significant effects on production, employment and, ultimately, economic growth, which is a major objective of the economy. The purpose of this paper was to assess the effects of tax shock on macroeconomic variables in an oil economy with the dynamic equation model approach. Estimation of model parameters was performed using seasonal adjustment time series data for the period of 1368 to 1396. The results indicate that a short-term tax shock has a negative effect on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth and consumption, but in the long run, with an increase in tax revenue, GDP growth and, consequently, consumption and investment in the economy have increased Is. In addition, the results reflect the fact that the effect of oil revenues alone on positive economic growth, but with the introduction of explanatory variables, the amount of capital accumulation, due to the effect of oil revenues on this variable (effective mechanisms), has its effect on economic growth, Has been negative. On the other hand, given that various evidence suggests that the most effective tax instruments based on the impact on GDP growth in the form of taxes on consumer goods, personal income tax, and so on, the results of this study show this Among the tax revenues, income tax and import taxes have had a positive effect on economic growth.