Systemic Modeling of Renewable Electricity Generation Expansion Planning in Competition with Conventional Electricity

Despite the Sixth Development Plan’s emphasis on the growth of renewable electricity, it does not have high implementation priorities in practice. With the development of fossil fuel power plants, the competitiveness and development of renewable power plants will also decrease. Due to the country’s need for renewable resources in the future, its development should be a concern from now on. This study aims to identify the dynamics of renewable electricity development from a macro perspective, and to obtain a correct estimate of the continuation of the current situation and to provide appropriate policies for the development of renewable electricity based on these dynamics for an era of 30 years to 2050. A combined framework for systemic modeling is proposed to create a macro-policy perspective, analyze competitorschr('39') behavior, and how investors make decisions. Verifications show that due to the high validity of model, it can be utilized to estimate strategic decisions in energy planning. By simulating different scenarios, it becomes clear that the current trend cannot achieve the set goals. Instead, by changing the policy, it is possible to increase the renewable electricity capacity share, from 2.3% by 2050 (with the current trend) to 5.4% - 13.7% (in different scenarios) with the least financial burden.