The effect of uncertainty in exports on economic development in OPEC member countries

Uncertainty about oil export revenues and its impact on OPEC's economic growth

To investigate the effect of export uncertainty on economic growth of OPEC member countries during the years 2000 to 2013

The use of a time-series or hybrid data combination model. To determine the type of model used in the combined data, various tests such as Chow, Hausman and LM have been used, and then three indicators of export instability have been described and the fourth indicator has been used to calculate export instability in OPEC member drafts.

The negative and significant (Table 5) is the export uncertainty factor. Therefore, this uncertainty in exports reduces the economic growth of the OPEC countries. Since variables are used as natural logarithms, It can be said that if the uncertainty of exports increases by one percent, economic growth will fall by as much as 0.47 percent. On the other hand, the results of the test of causality relationship also indicate that the causality relationship is from export uncertainty to economic growth.

OPEC countries need to invest flexibly in human and material capital, increasing the processing of petroleum products and the diversification of export goods, in order to reduce the vulnerability of income-generating uncertainty.