Surveying and Predicting Surface Currents of Khuzestan Province Using Time Series Models

The present study is to evaluate the surface currents of Khuzestan province and its forecast for the period 2019 to 2021 using time series models.

The present study was conducted in 9 selected stations from Khuzestan province in order to compare the accuracy of the time series model and predict the amount of surface currents. For this purpose, the monthly flow data of the hydrometric station for 22 years (1391-2014) has been used. The multiplicative seasonal time series model of surface currents was investigated and the best model was fitted.

The results of these studies show that the best models fitted in SARIMA (1,1,1) (1,0,1), SARIMA, SARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,1), telephoto SARIMA, Primate (1,0,1) (1,1,1) SARIMA, Dezful (1,0,2) (1,1,1) SARIMA, Plain SARIMA, Dokehe (0,2,2) (1,1,1) SARIMA, Gotvand (1,1,2) (1,0,1) SARIMA (1,1,1) And SARAB (1.1.2) (2.1.1), which had good accuracy to predict surface currents.

Surveying the annual prediction of surface currents for 2019 to 2029 showed that surface currents in all selected stations decreased and this decrease in Ahwaz station to the highest and the two-hill station to the lowest values reaches to 9.78 and 0/58 respectively; also, the monthly forecast showed that in December, with 6/98 and 1/67, the highest and lowest decreases would occur.