Simulation of the Effect of Climate Change on Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Potato (Solanum Tuberosum L.) in Ardabil

Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperatures and their amount, and these changes can affect plant performance. In this study, the efficiency of DSSAT model in simulating tuber yield and water use efficiency of potato plant under future climate change in different irrigation treatments and cultivar as an adaptation strategy was investigated.

For this purpose, the precipitation data, minimum and maximum temperatures were produced using the LARS-WG5 statistical exponential micro-scale model (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator) under the HadCM3 general circulation model. The A1B scenario was applied to future periods of 2011-‎‎2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100 and the basic period 1988-2016. DSSAT model and SUBSTOR-Potato model were used to simulate potato growth and yield. Prior to use, field data collected from Ardebil, Iran that were calibrated and validated. Then the values of tuber yield and water use efficiency were simulated in future periods. Three irrigation treatments were used such as full irrigation (FI), 15% less than control (LI1) and 30% less than control treatment (LI2), with five potato cultivars Agria (the conventional cultivation of the area), Caeser, Savalan, clones 397081-1, and 397082-10 with 3 replications.

According to the results, under the A1B scenario at the irrigation levels of FI and LI1, simulated values of tuber yield and water use efficiency showed the highest values for 2040 and 2070 compared to the basal period. It was also simulated by selecting Savalan cultivars, 397081-1, and 397082-10 the highest increase for tuber yield and water use efficiency values for 2040 and 2070 periods.

In following, The Less reduction in percentage of yield allowed the low irrigation (LI1) to replace the full irrigation (FI) treatment in future periods compared to the baseline period. Because of the importance of conserving and saving water resources in future climate ‎change periods, irrigation of 15% less than full irrigation is recommended for irrigation of potato ‎fields. The results of the simulation of water use efficiency can also emphasize the use of irrigation treatment 15% less than the control.