Landslide Modeling with Strategy Management in Urban Planning (The Case Study: Tabriz City)

Due to increasing constructions on clay and marl hells in part of Tabriz and because of the unfavorable quality and characteristics of the soil and its liquefaction during earthquake, the area is also exposed to the risk of landside. This paper attempts to demonstrate the risk of landslide in Tabriz using visual and statistical evidence.

 landside susceptibility assessment was performed by means of Evidential Belief Function Model. Then The environmental impacts assessment of landslide were performed using promethean II model in three environmental, economic, and social phases, and at end, the landslide strategy plan was developed to help decision makers, the statistics used in this research are related to year 2016.

82/9% of Tabriz areas are at risk of landslides. High construction densities were identified with residential areas below 75 m2. Access to the city’s road network is less than 30%. 142 hectares in health centers, 853hec in facilities and equipment, 430hecin urban green space deficiency was identified. More than 70% of vital centers require strengthening.

required zones in medical department, security, urban green space, vital centers require strengthening, facilities and equipment presented. The average landslide velocity from 1956 to 2020 is 41/65 meter. High slope and location difference, the texture of the earth and its non-dense layers, northern slope snow catcher, fine texture, the gradual erosion of sediments is effective in creating landslides over time.