The System Dynamic Model in National Innovation Capability Promotion Based on Bibliometric Analysis

Considering the detailed document of the Sixth Development Plan of the country, the essence of focusing on the export of products with advanced technology as an indicator of the effectiveness of national innovation capability, is one of the important goals of development. Therefore, in this study in order to designing a dynamic system in evaluating the extent of access to the mentioned goal, through examining the evolution of the intellectual structure of national innovation capability by using the bibliographic analysis approach, the key concepts related to it were classified in clusters, and based on the extracted concepts, the main components of the promotion model of national innovation capability were identified. Then, based on the research background and holding of the focus group with experts, other variables were determined in accordance to the dimensions of promoting national innovation capability, and based on the system dynamics approach, a dynamic model was drawn. Then, different strategies to innovation capability based on behavior of the main variable of the ratio of exports of high-tech products to patents were examined and analyzed.  The findings indicated the extraction of 5 clusters which were technological catch-up and productivity, knowledge absorptive capacity, dynamic capability, technological capability, and strategic alliance, as the main concepts extracted from bibliographic analysis. By applying two main strategies of encouraging the return of elites to the country, and facilitating the commercialization of knowledge-based products, the simulated variable of the ratio of exports of high-tech products to patents showed better behavior in the future.