Modeling of villagers' behavior in the face of drought risk in Lake Urmia (Case study: villages in Bonab County)

Perception of risk leads to the regulation of practical behaviors to deal with it. The purpose of this study is to analyze the experimental behaviors of villagers in Bonab city to understand the risk of drought in Lake Urmia. For this purpose, a combination of individual and social approaches was used.

The present study is descriptive-analytical. The statistical population of the study is residents over 15 years old in 29 villages of Bonab city, which is equal to 23653 people. Using Cochran's method and simple random method, 380 people were selected as the sample size. The tool used in this research is a questionnaire. Data were analyzed using SPSS software and multivariate regression tests, and path analysis.

The results of path analysis on the dependent variable showed that drought-tolerant crop, knowledge and skills, income, age, length of stay, participation in training programs, and modernization of irrigation canals have a direct effect on practical behaviors to reduce drought risk. Also, the results of path analysis on the dependent variable of intention to perform risk reduction behaviors in the future, showed that the variables of cultivation of drought-tolerant crops, self-efficacy, age, level of education, trust, previous experience, and responsibility have a positive effect and optimistic bias variables, income, and age. The risk perception variable had a negative effect. Indirect effects through the two variables of believes and income also affect the variable of intention to reduce the risk of drought.

According to the research results, the perception of drought risk by the villagers, this understanding has not yet changed the behavior of the rural community in practice.