Future Scenarios of Provincial Gas Companies in Iran: A Research Based on Future Workshops and Analysis of the Interaction of Key Uncertainties (Case Study: Tehran Gas Company)

Energy policy-making is considered the most important areas affecting the country's development. It plays an important role in strengthening national incomes and improving the country's governance system. In this study, we will seek to identify the future scenarios of provincial gas companies in Iran by focusing on the case of Tehran Gas Company. The research method is based on scenario writing using global business network methodology, which relies on identifying institutional actors, drivers, uncertainties and drawing future scenarios. After scanning the environment, in order to monitor the propulsions and uncertainties, reliable sources and reports of research and strategic institutes in the field of energy and gas were utilized. Moreover, relying on the company managers and experts’ participation in future workshops and also employing MicMac software, two key uncertainties of “energy governance arrangements in Iran” and “international interaction condition” were identified, and based on these uncertainties, four scenarios of Homay Saadat, Siah Zaghparan, Ghoghnoos Tanha, and Simorgh Darmangar were designed. Finally, in accordance with the scenarios, some strategies for the future of the provincial gas companies of Iran have been proposed based on the case of Tehran Gas Company.