An analysiz on Yazd province tourism in 1404 by system dynamics

The national development comprehensive document has mentioned that Iran must at the end of seventh development program in 1404 achieve to 20 million foreign tourists, Among our touristic provinces, Yazd province have a glorious aspects of historical civilization of Iran. So it is very important we study the current situation and future of tourism in this province. So this study is going to find a dynamic model to estimate foreign incoming tourist to Yazd in 1404 with current situation and checking the probable scenarios.this research is applied by pupose and qualitative study by methodology and descriptive analytic. At the beginning by tourism research literature and resources for determining the tourism situation of a region and interviews with 20 Yazd tourism experts, try to fine out the effective variables of Yazd such as security, transportation … In next step by variables quantities and their effects on each others, its causal loops diagram designed and the flow diagram ran in vensim software. The results shows by current tourism situation of Yazd continue till 1404, instead of at least 1.3 millions foreign tourists at most will achieve to 100,000 foreign tourists. By this result, another couple of variables`s situations in scenarios form researched and offered some suggestions such as focus on human resources training, effective and meaningful advertisement, reinforcement the private section … and also reliability and stability of model confirmed.