Developing Effective Propulsion of Social Capital on the Future of Infectious Diseases and COVID-19 in Iranian Cities (Case Study; Noorabad Mamasani)

In this study, we aim to identify the key factors affecting the future status of infectious diseases that arise from social capital in Iranian cities with a case study of the city of Noorabad and scenario building. In terms of applied purpose, the present study is a exploratory method at the exploratory level and based on a futures research approach. The propulsive forces are determined by the Delphi method, and then these factors are determined based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, prioritization, and the most critical factors, and software (Mic Mac) is used to write possible scenarios. In the scripting stage, 42 general variables were identified and defined in this software. Findings indicate that among these variables, inequality, social culture, social trust, social awareness, inflation, indifference to the current situation, rural migration, normalization, inadequate income distribution, poor quality of urban environment to The title of key factors affecting social capital and have the most direct impact and also have the most indirect impact on other variables that have been identified by experts and have been effective in the spread of infectious diseases in the future of the city. Based on the two criteria of "severity of uncertainty" and "degree of importance", three scenarios for the three possible futures of Noorabad, Fars, were identified and developed. Finally, according to the situation of the city of Noorabad and in proportion to these drivers, suggestions have been made to improve the situation of social capital.