Estimating the Probability of Closure in the Intra-Urban Transport Network After the Earthquake Using Bayesian Algorithm, A Case Study of Babol

Crisis management planners for natural disaster-prone areas are looking for pre- and post-hazard decisions to reduce the consequences and bring the city back to normal as soon as possible. The intra-city transportation network, as one of the most vulnerable arteries, has a strategic role in the city's reversibility. Thus, effective tools are needed to identify this role in the event of a natural disaster.In this research, a model has been developed under GIS with the help of which the performance of the urban road network can be investigated after the earthquake with the help of Bayesian algorithm. This model can determine the damage caused by a seismic event, including the collapse of buildings and adjacent bridges in any path that leads to the blockage of the route and the probability of blockage of the routes. In this method, different earthquake scenarios in which different sources of uncertainties in the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes are considered, are applied to the study area. Damage to buildings and bridges in the area, along with various seismic damage control factors of the road network, has been estimated. The performed analyses have led to the production of maps of the possibility of obstruction of the existing routes in the road network for different cases of obstruction (no obstruction, low, medium, high). These maps show the condition of the roads immediately after the earthquake. By examining the results of this research, we will found out the very complex situation of roadblocks in the city of Babol, and by conducting such analyzes and producing these maps for possible future earthquakes, the weaknesses of transportation network can easily be spotted by city managers, and authorities will be assisted to improve the network effectively while finding a suitable route for relief and help. Moreover, the results can be used in planning for the return of the city to its original state after a possible earthquake.