Security of Western Asia and possible Scenarios in the horizon of 1404

Western Asia is a region which has no more peace in it and always has disputes and conflict and everyday it has unpredictable occurrences. Assassinating of a representative of a country in another country by a third country, the Beirut explosion, governmental and non-governmental terorism, multiple vicarious wars, etc, all are just a part of what happened in this important era. Future study of science and art are realization and construction of the future with the help of study of changes and change makers in order to maximize the interests of the actor, and scenario writing is an important method which provides description of alternative futures which saves decision makers from strategic surprise. The present study in the point of subject is “applied” and the scenario is written by exploratory mixed method and is based on Global Business Network “GBN”. Data has been gathered by library and internet sources and they gathered by library catalog cards and the statistical population of this study included 15 experts. This study aims to extract future scenarios of possible threat for Western Asia on the horizon of 1404. Based on the result of this research two key uncertainties which are “military and armed conflict” and “regional military nuclei'' led to write scenarios which three significant scenarios are named "Burning Hell", "Wandering Ghosts" and "Peace before the Storm". Codification and strategies for confrontation with possible threats for Iran including expanding advisory activities, increasing diplomatic activities, rational supporting the resistance movement, and confronting the coalition of marginalized Arab countries with zionist regime and economic development.