فصلنامه راهبرد دفاعی
پیاپی 76 (زمستان 1400)

Environmental scanning has become crucial for organizations in recent years as it plays an important role in understanding the strategic environment. Since military organizations have specific characteristics in comparison to commercial and public organizations, a customized scanning framework should be developed based on these differences so that they can scan their external environment properly. This study seeks to design a scanning framework for military organizations. Thus, the case for such an organization has been studied and based on the data gathered research questions were answered: which dimensions of the environment should be scanned and what is the best combination of expert for data gathering. In this exploratory research, first a literature review has been done and then a questionnaire used to collect data from 42 commanders of the organization under study and strategic management experts. Data analysis showed the answer to research questions about dimensions of the scanning and characteristics of the experts.

The Islamic Revolution led the United States to take hostile action against the Islamic Republic of Iran. This behavior includes the vast range of hard, semi-hard, and soft military methodes. In this regard, it seems that the focus of the enemies is on the Iranian people, as the Supreme Leader of Iran points out that "the aim of the enemies is to deprive the holy system of the Islamic Republic of the support of the people, which is a great support for the country; "... Incidentally, the main target is the people". This study seeks to answer this question which asks “how does the United States influence the Iranian people in its possible actions against the Islamic Republic of Iran to attain its goals.” based on ground theory methods and western related reports of Iran. Therefore, its strategy is exploratory and qualitative and has no hypothesis and it’s applied-developmental in terms of purpose. In order to validate the results, a members control or accountability approach has been used. The results show that the United States is well aware of the role and vital impact of the support of the Iranian people on the stability and consistency of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, there has been every attempt to influence the people in various ways, such as: economic, political, cultural, defense, etc, so that they feel disappointment about the efficiency of the current system of the Islamic Republic of Iran and weaken their support of the government and the system. In the meantime, economic pressure, prevention of resistance economics, as well as creating pessimism and consideration of research activities and the development of defense technologies in the people’s mind, self-imposed by state organizations and private sectors, and universities are important factors and consequences of this behavior. The result of this behavior is that on the one hand the resilience of the society and the mobilizing power of the government and system of the Islamic Republic of Iran is decrease, and on the other hand, the mobilizing power of the United States and the enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran is increased.

Western Asia is a region which has no more peace in it and always has disputes and conflict and everyday it has unpredictable occurrences. Assassinating of a representative of a country in another country by a third country, the Beirut explosion, governmental and non-governmental terorism, multiple vicarious wars, etc, all are just a part of what happened in this important era. Future study of science and art are realization and construction of the future with the help of study of changes and change makers in order to maximize the interests of the actor, and scenario writing is an important method which provides description of alternative futures which saves decision makers from strategic surprise. The present study in the point of subject is “applied” and the scenario is written by exploratory mixed method and is based on Global Business Network “GBN”. Data has been gathered by library and internet sources and they gathered by library catalog cards and the statistical population of this study included 15 experts. This study aims to extract future scenarios of possible threat for Western Asia on the horizon of 1404. Based on the result of this research two key uncertainties which are “military and armed conflict” and “regional military nuclei'' led to write scenarios which three significant scenarios are named "Burning Hell", "Wandering Ghosts" and "Peace before the Storm". Codification and strategies for confrontation with possible threats for Iran including expanding advisory activities, increasing diplomatic activities, rational supporting the resistance movement, and confronting the coalition of marginalized Arab countries with zionist regime and economic development.

Security is the most basic conscious action of the human mind, the most basic need of society and the guarantor of the sufficiency and survival of the system. The Islamic Revolution of Iran, while adopting a realistic approach to security, has deep epistemological foundations in theory and a revolutionary and unique pragmatic action in the approach, which is demonstrated in the thoughts of the pioneers of the Revolution. As regards that some research for realization of these thoughts have methodological, posterior defects and based on superficial content analysis and sometimes have no theoretical basis.This present study is a systematic attempt to extract the fundamental variables in the security-intelligence ideas of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution through an integrated methodological innovation that after quantitative validation through heuristic and confirmatory factor analysis in structural equation modeling discovered the nature of these variables based on the effect matrix analysis. The results of the research showed that there are 17 fundamental variables with acceptable Load factor in four components of "ethical", "content and value", "operational and executive" and "evaluation and feedback" in their thinking that are in terms of nature, it categorized in influential variables (fundamental, environmental), two-dimensional variables (risk, goal), dependent variables, independent variables (exception, secondary leverage), strategic variables and regulatory variables. Common world security theories are unique. The results of this research provide an accredited, reliable and valid model for system strategists.

Social capital is one of the factors affecting the development of organizations and provides an appropriate platform for empowerment and productivity of human resources. Utilization of other organizational capital is also possible by the help of the promotion of this capital. The Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran (AJA) as an ancient, systematic and rational organization, in order to improve the current status of its social capital, in the first step needs to design a native model of social capital, based on the findings of this model in the second step to identify the current situation and Then pay the favorable condition of social capital. The purpose of the present study is to elaborate the indigenous model of social capital in AJA. This research is applied research and uses qualitative methods (descriptive-analytical). Its statistical population includes 20 AJA experts who were selected from the four AJA forces in accordance with the required experience and expertise by the judgment sampling. The data gathered with library data and field data (experts' view on Delphi technique). Research findings show that the social capital model in AJA has 5 components in the structural dimension, 5 components in the cognitive dimension and 4 components in the communication dimension and a total of 56 indicators.

This research has been compiled with the aim of identifying the dimensions, components and influential indicators of organizational culture on the effectiveness of the performance of the ideological and political organization of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The main issue of the present research is the uncertainty of the dimensions, components and effective indicators of organizational culture on the effectiveness of the performance of the ideological and political organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army. Conducting this research has led to the identification of indicators in the field of effectiveness of the organization's performance and provides the possibility of increasing the effectiveness of the performance of the political ideological organization of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The under study organization is the ideological political organization of the army and the statistical community is composed of 150 experts and specialists in the field of internal and external management, ideological political organization who have graduation and above degree and have at least twenty-five years of managerial experience. The sample population is 107 people. The present research is applied and uses correlation methods and has case-context with a mixed (quantitative-qualitative) approach. The research data gathered by field and library data with the tools of documents, interviews and questionnaires and were analyzed by descriptive, inferential and content analysis statistics. The results indicate the confirmation of the research hypothesis, i.e. the effective indicators of organizational culture on the effectiveness of the performance of the ideological and political organization of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran in two dimensions of attitude and behavior, identification and components and indicators of each dimension are identified and presented.