Identify and Prioritize Variables Affecting Credit Risk Case Study: Knowledge-based Companies Located in Science and Technology Parks of Semnan Province

Credit risk is one of the most important risk factors in banks and financing institutions. This risk arises when the recipients of credit facilities are not able to repay their installments and debts intentionally or unintentionally.The main purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the credit risk of knowledge-based companies located in science and technology parks of Semnan province. For this purpose, using the logit regression model, the quantitative variables of Rosenbluth concentration index, value added ratio, capital formation in industry and virtual variables of ownership status and type of knowledge-based companies were used. In order to calculate the quantitative variables of the research, the micro-data of the Iranian industrial sector in 2016 and 2017 were used based on the four-digit industry codes (ISIC) and the model was fitted. According to the results, the variables of ratio of concentration and value added have a negative and significant effect on credit risk; as each of these variables increases, assuming the other variables remain constant, the likelihood of facility deferral or credit risk decreases. Credit risk increases as the capital formation ratio in the industry increases. Facilities are more likely to be deferred in limited liability companies and cooperatives than in private limited companies. The risk of lending facilities to Type 2 manufacturing companies is lower compared to start-ups and Type 1 manufacturing companies.